The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about Bangladesh’s export earnings despite being out of the list of least developed countries (LDC) and becoming a developing country. Accordingly, Bangladesh will become a developing country from a least developed country (LDC) in the next 2026 calendar year. For this, some benefits will be reduced, which Bangladesh has been getting for so long like all other LDCs.
IMF estimates that Bangladesh’s export earnings in the fiscal year 2026-27 will be 7,580 million US dollars, which is almost double that of the fiscal year 2020-21. In the financial year 2020-21, the export revenue was 3 thousand 690 million dollars. This information has emerged in the estimation of various indicators of the economy of Bangladesh after the IMF approved a loan proposal of 4.7 billion dollars on January 30.
One of the export destinations of Bangladeshi products is the European Union (EU) countries, which can currently be exported with duty and quota free facilities. This facility will remain in effect till 2029. This is also considered to be one of the reasons for the increase in export earnings.
According to IMF data, the export income will decrease to 4 thousand 654 billion dollars by the end of the current financial year 2022-23, which was 4 thousand 925 billion dollars in the previous financial year 2021-22. However, the company believes that the export income will continue to increase from the financial year 2023-24 onwards.
According to IMF estimates, the export income will be 5 thousand 186 crores in the fiscal year 2023-24, 5 thousand 779 crores in the fiscal year 2024-25, 6 thousand 330 crores in the fiscal year 2025-26 and 7 thousand 58 crores in the fiscal year 2026-27.
If asked, the former president of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA). Fazlul Haque said, “It seems that we have said a little more, and the IMF has said a little less.” Export earnings are likely to be higher than IMF estimates. Because, we have the ability and indomitable enthusiasm. Although we have a strategic deficit.
According to IMF data, out of the total export income of 4 thousand 925 million dollars at the end of the current financial year, 4 thousand 261 million dollars will come from the garment sector. The rest will come from exporting services. And in the fiscal year 2026-27, out of the total export income of 7 thousand 58 million dollars, the share of the garment sector will be 5 thousand 742 million dollars. The remaining 1 thousand 316 million dollars will come from the export of services.
A National Committee was formed in April 2021 under the leadership of former Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Ahmad Kaykaus, to prepare, plan, implement and monitor the potential challenges arising from the transition from LDCs. A report of the committee highlighted the challenges as well as the opportunities after exiting the LDCs. It is said that the transition from LDC will enhance the new image and branding of Bangladesh.
Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) officially said last August, if the gas and electricity supply is correct along with the policy support of the government, the income of garment exports will stand at 10 thousand billion dollars by 2030.
BGMEA president Farooq Hasan told Prothom Alo yesterday, “Work is underway on the versatility of clothing products in the country.” High value garments are also being exported now, which was not the case earlier. As a result, we expect to exceed IMF estimates in terms of export earnings.
According to a 2020 World Trade Organization (WTO) report, export earnings will drop by 14.28 percent after transition from LDCs. In other words, the income in domestic currency may decrease by at least 51 thousand crore rupees as exports have to be subject to high duty.
Khandaker Golam Moazzem, research director of the private research organization Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said, “The IMF has made somewhat conservative estimates due to the slow growth and high inflation trend in the EU countries. It is very possible to achieve this goal.